Casino?

I think the prospects for a casino in Middleboro are fading fast. That's opinion, of course, and worse, it's opinion based on very incomplete knowledge. I have no crystal ball to know whether the idea of commercial casinos will fly, I have no insider knowlege on the likelihood of the Wampanoags being successful in getting the BIA to approve their land into trust application, and I certainly don't know what the people holding the purse strings are thinking. But it seems however I spin it, most scenarios seem negative for this project.

Commercial Licenses

Certainly there is stronger support for the idea of allowing casinos in MA than there ever has been before, but the marshalled forces of church groups, nimby's and other "No Casino" advocates might still prevail. If they do not (and that seems more likely), the first question is whether the Wampanoags might bid for a license.

I would think not. This would destroy the sovereignity the Tribe has worked long and hard to obtain, and I'd expect that tribal members would largely object to that. But what of the investors behind the Tribe? They certainly don't care about sovereign lands, but you also need to ask why they'd need the Wampanoags at all? If they were interested in bidding for one of these licenses, why would they want the baggage of the Wampanoags? Do they have a contract that binds them so tightly that they'd need to keep this relationship? That's possible, but it seems unlikely.

With or without the Tribe, why would a commercial license end up in Middleboro? In fact, given the opposition from local groups like CFO, it probably would not because the land would need to be rezoned, and it seems unlikely to me that the necessary votes could be obtained, especially after the Glenn Marshall debacle..

Land into Trust

Given the above, why wouldn't the Wampanoags and their investors be scared off by the competition from commercial casinos in New Bedford or Raynham?

One reason might be that once our State did legalize casinos for others, the Tribe would only need BIA approval to open their Class III casino. They wouldn't have to pay anything to the State (or that's how I interpret it, but this article seems to imply otherwise), their only tithe would be those things in the Agreement with Middleboro signed after July's Special Town Meeting. If so, that would give them a profit advantage: they could offer higher payouts to gamblers and thereby siphon business from the licensed, commercial casinos. However, that could only lead to a nasty spiral of competition: good for gamblers, but harmful to the casinos and, if the State's cut from the licenses is based on profits, possibly harmful to the State as well.

But how quickly can the Tribe get BIA approval anyway? Some say it could take many years, others say it will at least have to wait for a Democratic President, and others say it's coming more quickly than anyone believes. If it is coming quickly, that could be a big advantage for the Tribe, but delays could cause the competition to entrench themselves in gambler's habits: Suffolk Downs says it would have at least a temporary casino by next July if the enabling legislation passed quickly.

With the Glen Marshall nastiness and other controversies swirling around the Tribe right now, it's difficult to imagine that the BIA will want to rush this through.. I would think if anything they'll be double-checking everything and proceeding very, very slowly.

And if they do get approval, there's a newly reported wrinkle because of a 1983 agreement with the State. Even if that isn't the death knell some seem to think it is, it surely will delay things. It sounds like the State intends to fight this in court - and certainly the folks with commercial licenses would be adding their assistance to the battle.

So what now?

Obviously Middleboro shouldn't be counting on this particular chick hatching. It may peep at us yet, but it's certainly no sure thing. We need to be looking in other directions.. unfortunately, there doesn't seem to be much to look at.

I did have an email this morning from someone who suggested Middleboro ought to get into the powdered milk business - apparently that's a niche market for small dairy farmers right now. Bill Hayes from Scituate noted:

If there really is money to be made there, I can't imagine it staying as a niche market: the big boys would move in soon enough, and that's the general problem with any small local industry: if it's worth anything at all, larger competitors in better labor markets will scoop the best of it. Bill responded to my suggestion that this might not be realistic:

One hope might be found in the very medium that's letting you read this page. Knowledge workers are no longer tied to physical locations; the Internet lets us work anywhere - I have customers all over this continent, many of whom I have never visited physically. Perhaps we need to concentrate on that sort of business?

On the other hand, the ability to have geographic independence depends deeply on energy: while knowledge can flow through fiber optic circuits, material goods and produce have to travel our roads and railways. As we may be facing really serious energy problems sooner than previously thought, local production may make a comeback: high transportation costs may once again make it possible for small farms and small businesses to survive. I'm not sure that has enough positive aspects to outweigh the obvious darkness that comes with it, but for some areas (like farming), it might. Maybe Bill is dead on.. agricultural monoculture has dangers anyway, so there is good reason to encourage small farms.

Well, I've drifted far off course. I could be totally wrong about all of this, but I think Oak Pointers are more likely to be taking a bus to Raynham's Casino than driving our golf carts through a path to Precinct Street.

Since writing this, things have changed again. It now seems that a New Bedford casino is unlikely and Raynham migh be just as murky. The Mohegans are pushing in Palmer, so the whole commercial idea might not fly at all. If so, we are back where we started.

If commercial licenses do go through, but leave a big hole down here for lack of suitable land or local resistance, this might still be viable for that reason.

It's going to be a bumpy ride..

Advertise Here - Free for Oak Point Homeowners

This website has no affiliation with the management of Oak Point Homes.

Subscribe to automatic notifications of new posts

43 43 43 43 43 6 22 13